Spotlight on Juan Correa, Chief Strategist, Global Asset Allocation, BCA Research
Global Thought Leader Spotlight
Juan Correa, Chief Strategist, Global Asset Allocation, BCA Research
In my role as the Chief Strategist of Global Asset Allocation at BCA Research, I advise pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, endowments, and family offices on optimal portfolio construction. BCA Research advises more than 2,000 clients over 70 different countries with over $30 trillion dollar in AUM.
Our mandate covers tactical asset allocation (6-18 month view) as well as strategic asset allocation (5-10 year view). We cover both liquid and illiquid assets and provide long term capital market assumptions for them.
Over the past decade at BCA, my research has covered topics such as the role of geopolitics in asset allocation, how dilution affects long term equity returns, techniques for building capital market assumptions, the interaction between private markets and factor premia, the role of fees in hedge fund performance, and the benefits of gold for multi asset portfolios, among others.
Rethinking geopolitical frameworks
For many decades, investors were able to ignore geopolitics. The unipolar regime of American hegemony ensured that investors could always count that trade, investment and military relationships between countries followed a set of clear guidelines and rules that most of the developed world would abide by.
That regime does not exist anymore. The world is transitioning away from unipolarity to multipolarity, which means that the old rules have been upended. Crucially, it means that ignoring geopolitics is no longer possible for asset allocators.
Just like one would do with valuations or economic growth, a framework that incorporates geopolitics as a fundamental pillar for asset pricing and portfolio construction is needed.
Implications for sophisticated investors
But what would such a framework look like? The knee-jerk reaction is to think about war. In fact, most geopolitical analysis that investors digest is about the risk of war and how to hedge against this risk.
We find this approach lacking. Wars can be very important drivers of asset prices over the tactical horizon. However, unless a truly global conflict occurs, wars have limited impact on the long-term fundamentals that underpin strategic asset allocation on a global basis.
So, what should long-term investors focus on? The most important question for asset allocators is how shifts across different geopolitical regimes change the way countries trade and invest amongst each other. Trade and investment flows are structure pillars of the global economy rather than transitory factors.
We are on the brink of such a shift today. While the world is multipolar from a balance of power perspective, the economic imbalances of unipolarity created over the last 40 years remain. These imbalances are unsustainable and will reverse over the next 5 to 10 years.
Our view is that these shifts in global trade and investment imbalances will have important implications for asset allocators going forward.
We provide a framework that links geopolitical regimes, to economic changes, to asset prices. Our conclusion is that over the next 5 to 10 years, as the world moves from unipolarity to multipolarity, the dollar will depreciate by 20% on a trade-weighted basis, ex-US stocks, particularly in Europe and China will be big winners, and commodity prices will experience a bull market.
Given the large exposure to the US that most investors have in their portfolios. Such a shift would require a significant rethink of current asset allocation.
Juan will be presenting at Global Investment Institute’s upcoming Family Office Investment Forums, taking place on Tuesday, 17 March 2026 in Sydney CBD, New South Wales and Thursday, 19 March 2026 in Melbourne CBD, Victoria. To register your interest in attending, click here or for more information email zelda@globalii.com.au.
Juan Correa, Chief Strategist, Global Asset Allocation, BCA Research
Juan is the Chief Strategist for Global Asset Allocation at BCA Research, leading the firm’s portfolio construction service, which provides guidance to Chief Investment Officers (CIOs) and asset allocation teams on structuring optimal global multi-asset portfolios.
Juan began his career at BCA Research in 2015. He progressed through roles as Senior Analyst in their Foreign Exchange and Global Asset Allocation services, before assuming the title of Associate Strategist in 2021. He has also been a guest lecturer at the finance programs of McGill and Concordia University.
Juan holds a BCom in Finance and Economics from McGill University, as well as the CFA designation.
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