Spotlight on Michael Hanson, Senior Vice President of Research, Fisher Investments
Global Thought Leader Spotlight
Michael Hanson, Senior Vice President of Research, Investment Policy Committee Member, Fisher Investments
In my role as Senior Vice President at Fisher Investments, I am responsible for the development of capital markets and securities research.
I am also a member of our five-person Investment Policy Committee (IPC). As a collective, the IPC have full discretion and accountability for all portfolio themes, security selection and portfolio construction at Fisher Investments.
In the current environment, we are focused on numerous key developments and topics. Of these, three key topics of interest include:
Differentiating between early-stage versus late-stage investor euphoria.
Inflation adjustment: So much of what looks problematic or frothy today actually isn’t.
What euphoria is, how to identify it and manage portfolios through it.
1. Differentiating between early-stage versus late-stage investor euphoria
Famed investor Sir John Templeton described how investor sentiment typically evolves: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” But euphoria’s arrival doesn’t signal a bull’s immediate end. Euphoria’s early stages can provide a tailwind for equities and shouldn’t be feared. Strong investor demand initially rises faster than equity supply can keep up, resulting in bullish scarcity.
As time goes on though, high demand attracts more equity supply creation, which can eventually overwhelm demand and contribute to an ensuing bear market.
A similar pattern can play out at the regional level as well, highlighted by the current spate of mega-IPOs in the US. IPOs are more muted in the rest of the world, showing the bifurcation of warming sentiment in the US and more sceptical sentiment elsewhere, hence our belief non-US equities likely outperform ahead as they positively surprise relatively lower expectations.
2. Inflation adjustment: So much of what looks frothy today isn’t
Scaling is key in market analysis. Nominal figures tell you little by themselves. Data need proper perspective to better assess present conditions relative to the past.
As one aspect to this, quite simply, many have forgotten to inflation adjust. Several generations of analysts haven’t had to bother with it because inflation was low and thus not so relevant. Now, it is amongst the most salient analytical issues of today, and a lens through which to see things like oil prices, consumer behaviour and equity supply clearly. Only a few are doing it correctly. After adjusting for recent and longer-term inflation, so much of what looks problematic or frothy today actually isn’t.
3. What euphoria is, how to identify it and manage portfolios though it
High equity prices by themselves aren’t what signal frothy markets. Not lofty valuations, either. Instead, be on the look-out for widespread irrational behaviour people convince themselves to take. Euphoria is a kind of collective irrationality that blocks individual judgment in favour of a collective mindset.
Often you’ll find people acting in spite of themselves, behaving in ways antithetical to their previously stated investment strategies. One contemporary example, or should I say conundrum is, how do you price things like SpaceX so far into the future, taking into account:
Cycles happen. Ultimately, macro factors largely determine market performance to a far greater extent than micro- or company-specific ones.
Businesses change. This equally applies to the hyperscalers, memory and chip firms. Their economics are changing in real-time and, based on the information available today, it is impossible to know how this will eventually settle.
Competition always wins. In due course, the big free cash flow of hyperscalers will succumb in the name of competition, margins will be slimmer and cash flows transferred to other firms.
Michael will be presenting at Global Investment Institute’s upcoming Family Office Investment Forum on Tuesday, 1 September and the Equities Investment Forum on Wednesday, 2 September 2026 in Melbourne CBD, Victoria. To register your interest in attending, click here or for more information email zlatan@globalii.com.au.
Michael Hanson, Senior Vice President of Research, Investment Policy Committee Member, Fisher Investments
Michael is a Senior Vice President and member of the Investment Policy Committee (IPC) at Fisher Investments. In those roles, Michael oversees the Research Group and is responsible for the development of capital markets and securities research.
Michael joined Fisher Investments in 2002 and has served on the firm’s five-member IPC since 2017. Prior to his current role, he held a variety of positions, including Vice President of Portfolio Management Communications, Capital Markets Team Leader and Institutional Client Services Manager. Before joining the firm, he worked at Bear Stearns as a Corporate Finance Analyst in the Global Technology Group.
Michael regularly meets with clients globally, sharing the firm’s market outlook, current portfolio positioning and answering questions. He is the author of six books, including ‘20/20 Money: See the Markets Clearly, Gain Focus and Invest Better than the Pros’. He was also a lecturer at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, where he taught investment management topics.
Michael received his undergraduate degree from Claremont McKenna College and his doctorate in Depth Field Psychology and Mythology from Pacifica Institute.
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