Spotlight on Michael Hanson, Senior Vice President of Research, Fisher Investments
Global Thought Leader Spotlight
Michael Hanson, Senior Vice President of Research, Fisher Investments
In my role as Senior Vice President at Fisher Investments, I am responsible for the development of capital markets and securities research.
I am also a member of our five-person Investment Policy Committee (IPC). As a collective, the IPC have full discretion and accountability for all portfolio themes, security section and portfolio construction.
Equity market outlook
Tariffs playing out better than feared: With pending court challenges, new trade deals with countries, and underwhelming tariff collections, the impact of changes to US tariff policy has been better-than-feared. Worst-case scenarios were priced in April, but as they failed to come to fruition markets bounced back sharply.
Post-correction gains do not signal the end: Retracing pullbacks tend to trigger selloff behaviour from investors, but enduring volatility often lays the groundwork for renewed upside and further gains.
Reset sentiment should provide bull market fuel: Fresh scepticism inside and outside the US from tariff and political developments lower the bar of expectations, setting the stage for positive surprise and a continuing bull market.
Where are the opportunities in equities?
We believe the global bull market will continue, despite fears around recent volatility, fiscal policy and geopolitics.
We expect European equities and Value to continue leading global outperformance in 2025’s second half, building on their performance in the first half of the year. However, we expect US and Growth to also fare well.
Easing global inflation has led many central banks to cut rates, resulting in a steeper yield curve and acting as a tailwind to non-US countries as the US Federal Reserve mulls their course.
Implications for institutional investors
2025’s early year correction seems prototypical in hindsight, rebounding sharply from Liberation Day’s steep fall to finish June at new, all-time highs. The downswing was an archetypal correction, classic in every way. It was a short, sharp shock, featuring a huge scary story: Tariffs. But markets overshot, pricing worst-case scenario estimates rapidly. This reset sentiment, positioning equities for a big relief rally when things weren’t as bad as initially feared.
Meanwhile, with little to no fanfare, the global yield curve steepened—especially outside the US, further supporting value-heavy European portfolio positioning. Easing inflation pressures enabled central banks to cut rates, and consensus expectations are for this to continue. The US would likely benefit from rate cuts and a steeper yield curve as well, but so far the US Federal Reserve lags other regions.
In our view, Q2’s recovery rally is a preview of strong full-year returns. We remain bullish, and our forecast remains from the beginning of the year, Europe and Value leading with the US doing just fine. Sentiment, particularly after the correction had reset it lower, has weakened in the US and remains dour outside the US, creating ample room for the global economy and earnings to beat expectations. Politics in the US remains as divisive as ever, yet political uncertainty abates as policies and possibilities become clearer.
While it is rare for equities to suffer more than one correction in a year, further volatility is always possible. Lingering tariff uncertainty is a wildcard. New highs after a correction tend to breed new highs, not fresh declines, and is the reward for discipline through endured volatility.
Michael will be presenting at Global Investment Institute’s upcoming Equities Investment Forum, taking place on Wednesday, 10 September 2025 at the Grand Hyatt Melbourne, Victoria. To register your interest in attending, click here or for more information email zlatan@globalii.com.au.
Michael Hanson, Senior Vice President of Research, Fisher Investments
Michael is a Senior Vice President and a member of the Investment Policy Committee (IPC). In those roles, Michael oversees the Research Group and is responsible for the development of capital markets and securities research.
Michael joined Fisher Investments in 2002 and has served on the firm’s five-member IPC since 2017. Prior to his current role, he held a variety of positions, including Vice President of Portfolio Management Communications, Capital Markets Team Leader and Institutional Client Services Manager. Before joining the firm, he worked at Bear Stearns as a Corporate Finance Analyst in the Global Technology Group.
Michael regularly meets with clients globally, sharing the firm’s market outlook, current portfolio positioning and answering questions. He is the author of six books, including ‘20/20 Money: See the Markets Clearly, Gain Focus and Invest Better than the Pros’. He was also a lecturer at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, where he taught investment management topics.
Michael received his undergraduate degree from Claremont McKenna College and his doctorate in Depth Field Psychology and Mythology from Pacifica Institute.
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