“Current yields (actual cashflows generated) in hard currency sovereigns are near 6.25%. This provides a significant cushion for any near-term spread volatility or potential rise in U.S. treasury yields. With a duration in the range of 6.5 years, it would take over 100 bps of higher spreads/treasury yields to erode that carry and result in negative total returns over a one-year period. Conversely, we believe that a realistic amount of spread tightening or treasury yield compression would take EM hard currency returns into the double digits.”
- Denis Cole is a Principal and Portfolio Specialist at PGIM Fixed Income. As part of the emerging market debt team Denis manages portfolios and analyses longer-term themes impacting emerging markets (EM). He adopts a strategic approach with clients to find their optimal EM allocations and takes pride in keeping clients informed about EM markets and assisting them with their EM debt exposure.
Denis will be presenting at Global Investment Institute’s upcoming Fixed Income & Alternatives Investment Forum, taking place on Thursday, 12 September 2024 at the Grand Hyatt Melbourne, Victoria.
To register your interest in attending, click here or for more information email zlatan@globalii.com.au.
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